As the world watches closely, U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set to meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in Lima, Peru, marking what could be the final direct engagement between the two leaders during Biden’s presidency. This high-stakes summit, scheduled for November 16, comes at a critical juncture as both nations face growing geopolitical challenges and uncertainties in the lead-up to Donald Trump’s impending return to office.
The tensions between the U.S. and China have only escalated in recent months, fueled by disputes over cyber security, trade policies, Taiwan, and Russia. The upcoming meeting offers an opportunity to address these issues, though both leaders are navigating an increasingly complex diplomatic landscape.
The Geopolitical Stakes: Cybersecurity, Taiwan, and Trade
A major point of contention heading into the meeting is cybersecurity. The Biden administration has recently expressed its anger over a series of cyberattacks allegedly linked to China, which targeted U.S. government officials and key figures involved in the presidential campaign. This breach has heightened tensions as Washington seeks to address these security risks head-on.
Another critical issue on the table is Taiwan, the self-governed island that China considers a breakaway province. U.S. policy on Taiwan remains a sensitive topic, with Biden’s administration continuing to support Taiwan with arms sales, despite not formally recognizing the island as a sovereign nation. Tensions are expected to rise in the coming weeks, especially with Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te planning a controversial stopover in Hawaii and possibly Guam during a diplomatic trip to the United States. This move is certain to provoke Beijing, which views any foreign visit involving Taiwanese officials as an affront to its territorial integrity.
In addition to Taiwan, trade relations between the two nations are under intense scrutiny. Biden has implemented policies aimed at limiting Chinese technological advancements, including restrictions on U.S. investments in Chinese artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and semiconductors. These moves have already strained economic relations, and trade disputes are likely to be a central theme in the upcoming discussions.
Russia and the Role of Global Alliances
The role of Russia in the U.S.-China relationship also looms large. Beijing’s support for Moscow, especially amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, has drawn sharp criticism from Washington. While China continues to deny U.S. allegations of complicity in Russia’s actions, the situation remains a significant point of divergence. Biden will undoubtedly press Xi on China’s stance towards Russia, as the U.S. works to isolate Moscow diplomatically and economically.
Xi’s leadership is also under intense scrutiny as his administration faces domestic economic challenges, which have been compounded by the global economic slowdown and increased pressure from the U.S. trade restrictions. The trade war initiated under Trump has not only disrupted bilateral trade but has also had a ripple effect on the global economy. With both nations looking to maintain their economic and political influence, their bilateral relationship remains one of the most consequential in the world today.
The Transition to Trump: A New Chapter in U.S.-China Relations?
As Biden prepares to meet with Xi, the looming specter of Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025 complicates the diplomatic landscape. Trump, who has long been a vocal critic of China, has promised a new round of tough measures against Beijing, including blanket tariffs on Chinese goods. If he follows through on his campaign promises, these actions could further strain U.S.-China relations and set the stage for a more adversarial relationship.
In anticipation of this shift, Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, has emphasized the need for the U.S. to maintain stability and predictability in its dealings with China during this transition period. This meeting between Biden and Xi offers an opportunity for both leaders to discuss the future trajectory of their relationship and potentially lay the groundwork for managing tensions in the months ahead.
China’s Growing Influence in Latin America
The Lima summit is also notable for the broader geopolitical context, as China continues to expand its influence in Latin America. President Xi arrived in Lima as part of a broader diplomatic tour of the region, which includes a range of high-profile engagements. Notably, Xi plans to finalize a major trade agreement with Peru, inaugurate the Chancay deep-water port, and engage in talks with leaders in Brazil.
China’s increasing presence in Latin America, particularly in sectors like mining, infrastructure, and energy, has raised concerns in Washington. U.S. officials worry that Beijing’s investments in the region could serve as a stepping stone for greater Chinese military and intelligence operations closer to the U.S. border. Although China has dismissed these claims, the strategic importance of Latin America to both the U.S. and China cannot be overstated.
Ryan Berg, an expert on Latin American affairs, notes that Xi’s diplomatic push in the region is likely to overshadow Biden’s efforts, particularly in the business and investment sectors. While Xi is expected to meet with American CEOs and business leaders, his charm offensive in Latin America is also designed to solidify China’s economic foothold and reduce any perceptions of a hostile environment for Chinese enterprises.
A Pivotal Moment in U.S.-China Relations
As Biden and Xi sit down to discuss the future of their nations’ complex relationship, the broader implications of their meeting will reverberate across global geopolitics. With tensions simmering over cybersecurity, trade, Taiwan, and Russia, the outcome of their discussions will set the tone for the next phase of U.S.-China relations.
In the coming months, as Donald Trump prepares to return to power, the U.S. and China will likely face even more challenges in their bilateral relationship. How Biden and Xi navigate this period of transition will have lasting consequences not only for their countries but for the entire international order. With both nations vying for global leadership, the stakes of their diplomatic engagements have never been higher.
