As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its 1,000th day, recent developments indicate a potential escalation, with both sides adjusting their strategies in the face of new military and diplomatic shifts. However, experts believe that despite the heightened rhetoric and use of advanced weaponry, the likelihood of Russia resorting to nuclear weapons remains low.
Hypersonic Missile Launch and Strikes on Dnipro
On November 22, 2024, Russia launched a hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile into Ukraine, marking a significant step up in its military actions. This attack targeted the city of Dnipro in response to a critical change in the military landscape: the United States and the United Kingdom permitted Ukraine to use longer-range weapons, such as the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) and Storm Shadow missiles, to strike Russian territory for the first time.
This shift in policy was seen as a major escalation in the ongoing war. Moscow’s missile strike on Dnipro appears to be a retaliatory measure, signaling that Russia will not tolerate Ukrainian attacks on its territory. The missile strike came shortly after Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree that lowered the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, adding further tension to an already volatile situation.
Putin’s Nuclear Threats: A Message, Not an Imminent Action
While Putin’s recent actions and rhetoric have raised concerns about the potential for nuclear escalation, analysts are skeptical that Russia will actually resort to nuclear weapons. Matthew Sussex, an expert on Russia and Eurasia, argues that the threat of nuclear warfare is more about psychological strategy than actual military intent. According to Sussex, Putin’s nuclear rhetoric is aimed at intimidating both the West and his domestic audience rather than preparing for a nuclear strike.
The strategic risks of using nuclear weapons, especially against NATO allies, would be catastrophic for Russia. Experts suggest that the Russian leadership is cautious of provoking NATO directly, as it would likely lead to a defeat for Russian forces. Despite the serious implications of such threats, Sussex believes that Putin is much more interested in playing a psychological game with the West—intensifying fears of a nuclear conflict to rally domestic support and influence Western policy.
The use of nuclear weapons remains highly unlikely, especially given the potential for global backlash and the risk of escalating the war into a wider, uncontrollable conflict. Analysts point out that Russia has already deployed several missile types that could carry nuclear payloads, but they have refrained from using them in combat.
The Influence of a Potential Trump Presidency
One factor that could influence Russia’s actions in the coming months is the possibility of Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency. Matthew Sussex notes that Putin may view a second term for Trump as an opportunity to secure more favorable terms. Throughout his campaign, Trump has repeatedly threatened to cut off military aid to Ukraine, and his rhetoric has suggested that he could push for a quick resolution to the war, potentially at the expense of Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Sussex suggests that Putin may be waiting for Trump’s return to power to exert more pressure on Ukraine and its European allies. He posits that Russia could aim to leverage the uncertainty surrounding a potential Trump administration to push for a peace deal that benefits Moscow, potentially forcing Ukraine into unfavorable negotiations. While such a strategy could work in Russia’s favor, it also carries risks, as Trump’s stance on Ukraine has been criticized by both Democrats and Republicans, who generally support continued U.S. aid to Ukraine.
The Strategic Landscape: A War of Attrition
Despite the escalating rhetoric and missile attacks, the war on the ground in Ukraine has not seen major changes in recent months. Russian forces continue to press on key Ukrainian strongholds in the eastern regions, but analysts suggest that progress has been slow and costly for Moscow. Ukrainian defenses remain strong in many areas, particularly in the east, where Russian forces have struggled to make significant inroads despite their numerical and technological superiority.
According to Alexey Muraviev, an expert in national security, Ukraine’s military situation remains challenging. While the country has received significant Western support in the form of advanced weaponry, there are concerns about the long-term sustainability of this aid. Muraviev warns that Ukraine may soon face a shortage of ammunition and other critical supplies, potentially limiting its ability to continue its offensive operations.
Both sides are expected to prepare for intensified fighting as winter approaches, with harsh conditions likely to complicate military operations. Experts predict that both Ukraine and Russia will aim to hold onto key positions and maximize their bargaining power in any future peace negotiations. As the conflict drags on, both sides are digging in for what could be a long and drawn-out war of attrition, with no clear path to resolution in sight.
Looking Ahead: A Potential Shift in the War’s Trajectory
While the immediate future of the war remains uncertain, some analysts believe that the pace of the conflict could pick up as both sides seek to position themselves for the post-election political landscape in the U.S. Regardless of whether Trump or Biden remains in power, the ongoing war and its ramifications for global security will continue to shape international relations in the coming years.
As the war continues to grind on, experts agree that the best-case scenario for Ukraine would be continued Western support to counterbalance Russia’s military capabilities. However, the geopolitical implications of the war, coupled with the looming threat of further escalation, leave the situation precariously poised, with no clear end in sight.
In summary, while the war between Russia and Ukraine has escalated in recent weeks, with new weapon systems and attacks targeting civilian areas, the use of nuclear weapons remains an unlikely outcome. Putin’s threats are part of a broader strategy to apply psychological pressure on the West, rather than a serious military calculation. As the conflict continues, both sides prepare for a prolonged struggle, with key geopolitical players like the U.S. and Russia awaiting the uncertain political shifts that may influence the course of the war.
